Consistent EdgeUpdated 29 Oct 2026Account

SFQ - Crypto OrderFlow CE strategy

Crypto · Binance

181 of 182 signals evaluatedMar 2023 – Oct 20264 signals per month

Built by Consistent Edge · backtest

Score

Last 30 days

+7.0%

Last 3 months

+58.2%

Since start

+1537%

Per trade

+1.10%

Win rate

40%

Max drawdown

15%

181 tradesAvg win +4.01% / loss -0.86%Profit factor 3.16Profitable months 65%Longest losing streak 9Median trade 4.3 days

Equity · $10,000 start

What they claim vs what happened

181 closed trades, 1 open. Every year positive: 2023 +14.5R, 2024 +61.3R, 2025 +64.9R, 2026 +59.3R.

Longs: 129 trades, +150.9R. Shorts (bear phases only): 52 trades, +48.9R.

2023-2024 were never used to design the entry rules. Without the regime switch, shorts lost 39R in that bull market; the switch kept every short off in 2023-2024.

The regime switch itself was chosen on 2023-2026 with only one halving cycle in the data. A 2022 bear-market test is still to come.

Since 20 Oct 2026 the halving window is active again (next halving expected around April 2028): longs only until about Oct 2029.

Monthly returns

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2023	·	·	-2	+10	+1	-3	-2	·	-2	+1	+7	-2
2024	+1	+31	+41	-8	-3	+17	-0	-1	+1	+10	+3	+21
2025	·	-3	·	·	+21	+7	+31	-4	+11	-4	+27	+3
2026	+13	+31	-10	+12	+3	+20	-9	+18	+24	+9	·	·

% per month

Details

How we tested

Source: Consistent Edge research: one rule-based model on Binance BTC and SOL and ETH perpetuals
Risk: 1.5% of the account per trade, $10,000 start
Costs: Exchange taker fee 0.05% per side on every entry, partial and buy-back (Binance perpetuals, 1-minute prices)
Test: Built by Consistent Edge from BTC order flow: buys stop-hunts near the bottom of the range when spot buyers absorb futures selling (shorts are the mirror image). Signal on a closed 30-minute candle, entry at the next open, 2.5% stop, half off at +3.75%, bought back at entry (max twice), rest closed after 21 days, one trade at a time per coin. Longs are always allowed; shorts only outside the window from 18 months before to 18 months after a Bitcoin halving, and only when BTC is below its 20-week average or that average has flattened. Backtest on Binance 1-minute data, Jan 2023 - Oct 2026.

Trades (last 181 of 181)

Closed	Symbol	Side	Open	Close	Exit	Result
2026-10-24 15:16	SOLUSDT	buy	101.38	99.1	model	-1.04%
2026-10-24 15:09	ETHUSDT	buy	2366.18	2308.78	model	-1.04%
2026-10-23 08:29	ETHUSDT	sell	2760.06	2408.6	model	+3.26%
2026-10-21 13:29	SOLUSDT	sell	122.18	107.17	model	+4.63%
2026-10-21 13:29	BTCUSDT	sell	85152.9	83710	model	+1.05%
2026-10-02 08:17	ETHUSDT	sell	2698.33	2765.67	model	-1.04%
2026-09-27 08:00	SOLUSDT	sell	121.45	123.95	model	-1.04%
2026-09-23 09:29	ETHUSDT	buy	2387.23	2737.22	model	+4.37%
2026-09-21 08:43	SOLUSDT	sell	113.36	116.02	model	-0.31%
2026-09-21 08:38	BTCUSDT	sell	81304.7	83644.7	model	-1.04%
2026-09-15 18:48	BTCUSDT	buy	77082.1	75150.7	model	-1.04%
2026-09-15 18:47	SOLUSDT	buy	99.19	96.81	model	+1.67%
2026-09-10 12:30	BTCUSDT	buy	79357.7	77695.1	model	-1.04%
2026-09-04 08:29	BTCUSDT	buy	62750.1	80947.1	model	+6.51%
2026-09-01 19:29	SOLUSDT	buy	75.25	100.09	model	+7.31%
2026-08-31 19:29	ETHUSDT	buy	1877.67	2484.24	model	+7.17%
2026-08-12 15:29	BTCUSDT	sell	66044.1	63478.7	model	+1.49%
2026-08-08 11:11	SOLUSDT	sell	73.8	75.43	model	-1.04%
2026-08-01 15:29	SOLUSDT	sell	78.71	72.81	model	+3.67%
2026-07-27 06:06	ETHUSDT	sell	1924	1973.51	model	-0.31%
2026-07-21 10:15	BTCUSDT	sell	64756.5	66359.1	model	-1.04%
2026-07-21 08:16	ETHUSDT	sell	1892.43	1938.66	model	-1.04%
2026-07-15 13:17	BTCUSDT	sell	63881.7	65485	model	-1.04%
2026-07-14 12:56	ETHUSDT	sell	1809.81	1855.2	model	-1.04%
2026-07-06 10:59	BTCUSDT	sell	65884.7	62797.6	model	+1.65%
2026-07-04 15:09	ETHUSDT	sell	1741.51	1788.78	model	-1.04%
2026-07-04 04:37	SOLUSDT	sell	81.52	83.83	model	-1.04%
2026-07-01 16:27	SOLUSDT	sell	75.99	77.98	model	-1.04%
2026-06-29 17:15	SOLUSDT	sell	74.43	75.9	model	+0.42%
2026-06-15 13:16	SOLUSDT	sell	71.84	73.62	model	-1.04%
2026-06-15 13:05	ETHUSDT	sell	1736.78	1778.76	model	-1.04%
2026-06-14 21:50	ETHUSDT	sell	1684.89	1726.33	model	-1.04%
2026-06-14 21:50	BTCUSDT	sell	63971.1	65512.1	model	-1.04%
2026-06-14 21:33	SOLUSDT	sell	67.88	69.64	model	-1.04%
2026-06-11 08:29	SOLUSDT	sell	87	65.46	model	+6.39%
2026-06-11 08:29	ETHUSDT	sell	2140.75	1660.34	model	+5.93%
2026-06-11 08:29	BTCUSDT	sell	78016.9	62924.6	model	+5.31%
2026-05-16 07:13	ETHUSDT	buy	2238.89	2194.15	model	-0.31%
2026-05-10 17:59	BTCUSDT	buy	74742.3	81441.5	model	+2.50%
2026-05-06 08:55	SOLUSDT	sell	86.77	88.96	model	-0.31%
2026-04-29 18:08	ETHUSDT	buy	2306.64	2246.38	model	-0.31%
2026-04-23 10:29	ETHUSDT	buy	2035	2312.52	model	+3.44%
2026-04-19 22:20	SOLUSDT	buy	85.09	83.22	model	-1.04%
2026-04-17 15:59	BTCUSDT	buy	66091.9	77736.2	model	+4.96%
2026-04-16 18:45	SOLUSDT	sell	85.86	88.1	model	-0.31%
2026-04-13 23:26	SOLUSDT	sell	84.67	86.75	model	+0.42%
2026-04-07 23:29	SOLUSDT	sell	84.52	86.94	model	+0.42%
2026-03-31 17:23	ETHUSDT	sell	2072.48	2117	model	-1.04%
2026-03-29 22:49	ETHUSDT	buy	1990.11	1940.58	model	-1.04%
2026-03-29 17:22	SOLUSDT	buy	83.25	81.23	model	-1.04%
2026-03-27 13:37	BTCUSDT	buy	67769.7	66343	model	-0.31%
2026-03-27 11:01	ETHUSDT	buy	2031.54	1988.3	model	-0.31%
2026-03-27 10:38	SOLUSDT	buy	85.3	83.05	model	-0.31%
2026-03-10 08:21	ETHUSDT	sell	2015.88	2063.88	model	-1.04%
2026-03-10 08:08	SOLUSDT	sell	85.04	87.27	model	-1.04%
2026-03-10 02:42	BTCUSDT	sell	68570	70372.5	model	-1.04%
2026-02-25 16:25	SOLUSDT	sell	85.2	87.38	model	-0.31%
2026-02-23 01:45	ETHUSDT	buy	1907.71	1862.99	model	+0.42%
2026-02-23 01:17	BTCUSDT	buy	66849.3	65319.9	model	-1.04%
2026-02-19 13:49	SOLUSDT	buy	81.69	79.73	model	-1.04%
2026-02-17 16:59	BTCUSDT	sell	88604.9	67493.1	model	+5.48%
2026-02-17 16:29	SOLUSDT	sell	125.65	84.1	model	+7.32%
2026-02-08 15:29	ETHUSDT	sell	3330.38	2101.54	model	+8.09%
2026-01-25 19:53	BTCUSDT	buy	88317	86290	model	-1.04%
2026-01-25 16:02	SOLUSDT	buy	126.7	123.93	model	-0.31%
2026-01-08 21:59	SOLUSDT	buy	120.05	139.56	model	+4.69%
2026-01-08 21:59	ETHUSDT	buy	2828.7	3117.62	model	+2.75%
2026-01-08 21:59	BTCUSDT	buy	85584.3	91223.2	model	+2.03%
2025-12-11 04:59	SOLUSDT	sell	144.59	130.96	model	+4.06%
2025-12-09 16:44	BTCUSDT	sell	91966.2	94203.6	model	-0.31%
2025-12-09 16:13	ETHUSDT	sell	3211.46	3290.69	model	-0.31%
2025-12-03 13:16	ETHUSDT	sell	3019.02	3092.34	model	-1.04%
2025-11-17 07:59	SOLUSDT	sell	202.43	141.26	model	+6.75%
2025-11-17 07:59	ETHUSDT	sell	4199.99	3197.11	model	+5.49%
2025-11-17 07:59	BTCUSDT	sell	115522	95587.9	model	+4.16%
2025-10-26 22:03	BTCUSDT	sell	111790	115500	model	-0.31%
2025-10-26 13:40	SOLUSDT	sell	194.3	199.12	model	-0.31%
2025-10-21 16:00	ETHUSDT	sell	3992.24	4079.24	model	-0.31%
2025-10-20 08:34	BTCUSDT	sell	108720	111433	model	-1.04%
2025-10-20 05:54	SOLUSDT	sell	188.44	193.18	model	-1.04%
2025-09-22 00:29	BTCUSDT	buy	107780	115130	model	+2.07%
2025-09-16 13:45	ETHUSDT	buy	4557.53	4437.79	model	-1.04%
2025-09-15 17:21	SOLUSDT	buy	236.17	230.26	model	-1.04%
2025-09-12 12:29	SOLUSDT	buy	178.18	238.09	model	+7.43%
2025-08-26 00:44	BTCUSDT	buy	111992	109157	model	-0.31%
2025-08-01 00:51	BTCUSDT	buy	117483	114368	model	-1.04%
2025-08-01 00:12	ETHUSDT	buy	3759.52	3662.84	model	-1.04%
2025-07-29 16:38	SOLUSDT	buy	182.77	178.5	model	-1.04%
2025-07-27 09:59	SOLUSDT	buy	146.75	186.3	model	+6.10%
2025-07-27 09:59	ETHUSDT	buy	2506.13	3762.31	model	+11.46%
2025-07-27 09:59	BTCUSDT	buy	107792	117914	model	+2.59%
2025-06-08 20:29	ETHUSDT	buy	2377.82	2534	model	+2.75%
2025-06-02 14:29	BTCUSDT	buy	102907	104413	model	+1.73%
2025-05-29 16:55	SOLUSDT	buy	172.21	167.88	model	+0.42%
2025-05-19 05:04	SOLUSDT	buy	166.38	162.35	model	+0.42%
2025-05-18 20:00	ETHUSDT	buy	2460.46	2341.02	model	-0.31%
2025-05-07 17:59	SOLUSDT	buy	125.07	145.58	model	+3.99%
2025-05-07 17:59	ETHUSDT	buy	1545.03	1795.28	model	+4.68%
2025-05-07 17:59	BTCUSDT	buy	83237.5	96277.4	model	+3.84%
2025-02-24 22:03	BTCUSDT	buy	95774.9	93326.7	model	-1.04%
2025-02-24 14:57	SOLUSDT	buy	159.21	155.1	model	-1.04%
2024-12-23 01:20	SOLUSDT	buy	181.07	176.67	model	-1.04%
2024-12-17 18:29	BTCUSDT	buy	92464.5	106970	model	+4.58%
2024-12-09 08:51	SOLUSDT	buy	232.73	227.18	model	-1.04%
2024-12-06 04:59	SOLUSDT	buy	205.94	241.21	model	+4.14%
2024-12-06 04:59	ETHUSDT	buy	3027.48	3905.51	model	+6.51%
2024-11-24 17:29	BTCUSDT	buy	68353.7	95948.3	model	+8.78%
2024-11-13 04:35	SOLUSDT	buy	207.55	202.5	model	-1.04%
2024-11-04 21:24	SOLUSDT	buy	160.73	156.95	model	-1.04%
2024-11-04 21:24	ETHUSDT	buy	2447.65	2401.35	model	-1.04%
2024-11-03 14:52	ETHUSDT	buy	2479.71	2419.34	model	-1.04%
2024-11-03 14:45	BTCUSDT	buy	69360	67635.5	model	-1.04%
2024-11-03 14:25	SOLUSDT	buy	164.16	160.25	model	-1.04%
2024-10-31 14:47	SOLUSDT	buy	173.62	169.57	model	-1.04%
2024-10-24 08:29	ETHUSDT	buy	2335.01	2544.99	model	+3.24%
2024-10-24 08:29	BTCUSDT	buy	60328	67129.9	model	+3.69%
2024-10-09 16:29	SOLUSDT	buy	127.858	141.126	model	+2.79%
2024-10-01 17:17	BTCUSDT	buy	63309	61676.1	model	-1.04%
2024-10-01 14:52	ETHUSDT	buy	2601.49	2541.24	model	-1.04%
2024-09-04 01:00	BTCUSDT	buy	58176.7	56681	model	+0.42%
2024-08-29 22:07	SOLUSDT	buy	141.892	138.129	model	+0.42%
2024-08-27 21:47	ETHUSDT	buy	2568.77	2481.49	model	+0.42%
2024-08-15 19:10	BTCUSDT	buy	58700.1	57394.8	model	-0.31%
2024-08-12 18:57	SOLUSDT	buy	146.521	143.125	model	-1.04%
2024-08-02 21:15	BTCUSDT	buy	63392.2	61994.1	model	-0.31%
2024-07-04 01:55	BTCUSDT	buy	60286.1	58814	model	-0.31%
2024-06-24 09:30	ETHUSDT	buy	3421.73	3334.69	model	-0.31%
2024-06-24 02:55	SOLUSDT	buy	129.178	126.559	model	-1.04%
2024-06-24 00:05	BTCUSDT	buy	64671.3	63022.4	model	-1.04%
2024-06-11 06:24	BTCUSDT	buy	69300.9	67612.6	model	-1.04%
2024-06-11 04:30	SOLUSDT	buy	157.822	153.711	model	-1.04%
2024-06-03 02:29	SOLUSDT	buy	141.309	164.655	model	+4.74%
2024-06-03 02:29	ETHUSDT	buy	2897.18	3818	model	+7.07%
2024-06-03 02:29	BTCUSDT	buy	61105.1	68665.8	model	+3.91%
2024-05-08 21:21	BTCUSDT	buy	62968.3	61371.7	model	-1.04%
2024-05-08 20:17	ETHUSDT	buy	3043.84	2965	model	-1.04%
2024-04-30 11:42	BTCUSDT	buy	62581.3	61035	model	-1.04%
2024-04-30 08:57	ETHUSDT	buy	3140.3	3059.48	model	-0.31%
2024-04-30 08:34	SOLUSDT	buy	135.975	132.728	model	-1.04%
2024-04-27 01:17	BTCUSDT	buy	64258.4	62499.9	model	-1.04%
2024-04-24 23:01	SOLUSDT	buy	149.86	145.696	model	-1.04%
2024-04-13 20:06	BTCUSDT	buy	64928.2	63479.2	model	-0.31%
2024-04-12 18:35	ETHUSDT	buy	3241.97	3130.41	model	+0.42%
2024-04-09 14:42	SOLUSDT	buy	174.543	170.333	model	-0.31%
2024-04-05 07:07	SOLUSDT	buy	177.56	173.365	model	+0.42%
2024-04-02 02:37	ETHUSDT	buy	3471.06	3375.67	model	-1.04%
2024-03-19 01:10	ETHUSDT	buy	3515.91	3427.41	model	-1.04%
2024-03-15 23:29	SOLUSDT	buy	99.924	183.711	model	+17.48%
2024-03-13 15:59	BTCUSDT	buy	51183.6	72670.2	model	+9.11%
2024-02-21 18:22	SOLUSDT	buy	103.904	101.259	model	-1.04%
2024-02-13 13:59	SOLUSDT	buy	79.38	112.195	model	+8.98%
2024-02-13 13:59	ETHUSDT	buy	2199.51	2644.36	model	+4.75%
2024-02-13 13:59	BTCUSDT	buy	38857.9	49543.2	model	+6.21%
2024-01-22 19:41	BTCUSDT	buy	40613.1	39606.1	model	-0.31%
2024-01-22 10:13	ETHUSDT	buy	2443.61	2383.21	model	-1.04%
2024-01-19 16:44	SOLUSDT	buy	89.495	87.181	model	-1.04%
2024-01-14 23:39	BTCUSDT	buy	42856.1	41846.4	model	-1.04%
2024-01-14 23:36	ETHUSDT	buy	2535.79	2475.99	model	-1.04%
2024-01-12 16:01	BTCUSDT	buy	45462.8	44410	model	-1.04%
2024-01-08 03:13	SOLUSDT	buy	89.264	86.839	model	-1.04%
2024-01-08 02:52	ETHUSDT	buy	2229.9	2176.2	model	-1.04%
2024-01-07 22:16	SOLUSDT	buy	93.901	90.967	model	-1.04%
2024-01-03 12:01	SOLUSDT	buy	99.798	96.806	model	+1.67%
2024-01-03 04:29	ETHUSDT	buy	2163.36	2373.38	model	+4.11%
2024-01-03 04:29	BTCUSDT	buy	40855.8	45238.3	model	+3.59%
2023-12-13 07:00	SOLUSDT	buy	65.523	64.201	model	-1.04%
2023-11-07 13:59	ETHUSDT	buy	1570.91	1873.9	model	+4.57%
2023-10-12 15:59	BTCUSDT	buy	26567.6	26665.4	model	+0.84%
2023-10-11 02:34	ETHUSDT	buy	1583	1542.01	model	-0.31%
2023-09-25 00:22	SOLUSDT	buy	19.598	19.109	model	-1.04%
2023-09-11 14:41	BTCUSDT	buy	25840.9	25244.6	model	-1.04%
2023-09-10 04:07	SOLUSDT	buy	19.406	18.723	model	+0.42%
2023-07-30 19:48	SOLUSDT	buy	24.812	24.226	model	-1.04%
2023-06-28 19:30	ETHUSDT	buy	1860	1820.17	model	-1.04%
2023-06-28 07:34	SOLUSDT	buy	16.2	15.93	model	-1.04%
2023-05-10 17:16	BTCUSDT	buy	27443.5	27097.6	model	+0.42%
2023-04-30 08:29	SOLUSDT	buy	19.99	23.617	model	+4.34%
2023-04-26 20:02	ETHUSDT	buy	1834.01	1794.05	model	+0.42%
2023-04-17 11:34	BTCUSDT	buy	30228	29414.5	model	-1.04%
2023-04-05 16:59	SOLUSDT	buy	18.782	20.665	model	+2.72%
2023-03-07 15:01	SOLUSDT	buy	20.405	20.194	model	-1.04%

Download all trades (CSV) 182 trades with entry, stop, target, partials, exit and result